Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 2.438742 2.836137 3.276096 3.799082 4.403659 5.080467 5.895571
2026-01-25 1.772390 2.291937 2.928438 3.764668 4.833708 6.154108 7.908827
2026-02-01 1.291026 1.822288 2.529732 3.538736 4.939292 6.813360 9.511216
2026-02-08 1.004059 1.526237 2.272281 3.412558 5.108519 7.535075 11.269446
2026-02-15 0.826830 1.340534 2.120713 3.386846 5.385824 8.415871 13.354612
2026-02-22 0.727562 1.249028 2.085028 3.515616 5.896317 9.692947 16.201317
2026-03-01 0.619334 1.120625 1.965192 3.482376 6.131665 10.556930 18.499652
2026-03-08 0.528285 1.003684 1.842350 3.418209 6.295030 11.309959 20.699963
2026-03-15 0.463763 0.922069 1.765928 3.419156 6.564167 12.267514 23.372255
2026-03-22 0.443604 0.919606 1.831154 3.686670 7.352132 14.243538 28.148773
2026-03-29 0.403152 0.870167 1.799048 3.760916 7.779669 15.601845 31.934919
2026-04-05 0.365662 0.820316 1.757959 3.809316 8.159213 16.909895 35.786193
2026-04-12 0.326847 0.763305 1.697948 3.818903 8.480531 18.184095 39.832406
2026-04-19 0.290158 0.705137 1.627493 3.797580 8.738881 19.376466 43.907741
2026-04-26 0.243877 0.616685 1.476642 3.574042 8.520734 19.531509 45.771315
2026-05-03 0.211129 0.554610 1.375593 3.448077 8.502984 20.118814 48.680870
2026-05-10 0.188999 0.514878 1.320654 3.422601 8.715884 21.253290 53.011432
2026-05-17 0.177989 0.501826 1.328566 3.552881 9.325264 23.391704 60.030828
2026-05-24 0.159995 0.466830 1.275536 3.519357 9.519147 24.558638 64.832259
2026-05-31 0.142807 0.430921 1.214363 3.454543 9.622204 25.514535 69.236556
2026-06-07 0.130365 0.406318 1.179560 3.455506 9.899859 26.949742 75.085254
2026-06-14 0.129231 0.414963 1.238009 3.725810 10.953611 30.544907 87.180762
2026-06-21 0.121020 0.400575 1.228783 3.800828 11.471357 32.780069 95.878552